By Bill Anderson, FCCA, Chief Executive Officer, Assetica — 2026-07-02
Every valuation guide quotes US multiples. This is how defensible GCC benchmarks are actually constructed: from DFM, ADX and Tadawul listed comparables and disclosed regional transactions, with the size, liquidity and disclosure adjustments that make them usable for private companies.
Three layers, in descending order of visibility. Listed comparables: the regional exchanges, DFM and Nasdaq Dubai, ADX, Saudi Arabia's Tadawul (the region's deepest market), Boursa Kuwait and the QSE, publish prices and IFRS financials from which EV/EBITDA, EV/Revenue and P/E multiples are computed for banks, telecoms, healthcare, logistics, real estate and consumer names. Disclosed transactions: a minority of regional M&A deals disclose pricing, skewed toward larger and listed-adjacent targets. Private evidence: completed engagements and market soundings, unpublished but indispensable for the SME segment where most valuation demand actually sits.
A listed healthcare group at 12x EBITDA does not make your clinic worth 12x. Three adjustments intervene. Size: smaller companies carry higher risk and transact at persistent discounts to large-cap multiples. Marketability: private shares cannot be sold in a day on an exchange, and the discount for that illiquidity is substantial and well-documented. Control and stake: a controlling stake in a private company prices differently from the minority interests listed multiples describe. Applied honestly, these take a 10x to 12x listed sector multiple down to the 5x to 8x territory where comparable private mid-market deals actually complete.
Worked through that process, Assetica's indicative UAE ranges for normalised EBITDA multiples in 2026: technology and SaaS 8x to 15x; financial services 6x to 12x; healthcare 6x to 10x; real estate services 5x to 10x; manufacturing and professional services 4x to 8x; logistics 4x to 7x; retail, F&B and trading 3x to 6x. Saudi multiples often run comparable or slightly higher in Vision 2030 sectors on deeper capital availability, while smaller GCC markets price wider risk discounts. These are directional reference points: position within a range is set by the specific business's earnings quality, concentration and management depth, which is why the range is where analysis starts, not where it ends.
What EBITDA multiples do GCC businesses sell for?
Indicatively in 2026: technology 8x to 15x; financial services 6x to 12x; healthcare 6x to 10x; manufacturing and professional services 4x to 8x; logistics 4x to 7x; retail, F&B and trading 3x to 6x. These are directional ranges derived from listed comparables and transaction evidence, adjusted for size and marketability; specific businesses price within them on earnings quality and risk.
Can I use US valuation multiples for a UAE business?
Not directly. US multiples embed deeper market liquidity, disclosure and buyer pools than the GCC. Regional benchmarks built from DFM, ADX and Tadawul comparables and GCC transactions, with size and marketability adjustments, are the defensible basis for pricing a private UAE business.
Why do listed multiples overstate private company value?
Because they describe liquid minority interests in large companies. Private SME stakes carry size discounts, marketability discounts for illiquidity and control adjustments, which together typically reduce a listed sector multiple by several turns before it can price a private business.